Now that the MLB draft (guessing game) is over, teams are feeling good about their selections and have high hopes for their prospects in the future. This is as it should be. But will their hopes be realized? From all past indications it appears that they may have just a 50/50 chance.
But then it is not necessary to rely on past experiences to understand that the draft is truly a guessing game with 50-50 odds. Statistics show that each team experiences some success and failure almost every year. Some years are better than others.
Success means that the player is capable of playing and doing well in the majors for many years. Failure on the other hand occurs when the player not only does not come up to expectations, but is often injured and unable to play.
The reasons for success can be many and will not be looked into. Instead, focus will be on the reasons for failure since these can be corrected to allow for a greater success rate.
One of the major reasons why scouts and team coaches are not able to fully and correctly evaluate each player is that they do not evaluate their skill technique (except superficially). Nor do they evaluate the player’s physical abilities that relate specifically to the skill.
For example, pitching and hitting technique has changed over the last 30-40 years. However, there has not been any evaluation as to the effectiveness of the changes that have taken place. Most coaches seem to just assume the changes are effective because so many athletes strive to use the new techniques.
But how well a pitcher can throw the ball plays a major role in regard to whether his throwing technique will lead to injury. How effectively batters swing the bat plays a major role in regard to injury as well as effectiveness in hitting the ball (in regard to getting hits).
Scouts and coaches may spent considerable time looking at the player playing the game but this does not tell them how effective they will be in the next 5-10 years. It only indicates how effective they are at the present time.
To determine how effective they may be in future years requires analysis of their hitting and throwing skill technique. This is especially true of pitchers who seem to be more prone to injury than other position players. This is why the analysis of skill is so critical when selecting a player. Without it, you are only hoping that they will be good in future years. This is why the major league baseball draft is a guessing game.
For more information, see Build a Better Athlete.