With the movie Moneyball now playing in the theaters is interesting to see how many people are picking up on this concept. They are led to believe that the statistics involved in charting the players allows the teams to select better players and thus develop much better teams.
This may have been true at the very beginning when only one or two teams used this concept. But is it true today when almost all teams have more stats on each player than ever existed before? What is especially surprising today is that no one has ever questioned the effectiveness of all of this charting and selecting. No one has done any studies — at least to my knowledge — to see if teams are now doing better or if individual players are now doing better than they ever did before.
If the teams did this, they would find that they are no better off than they were prior to using the moneyball concept. For example, pitchers today are guided by number of pitches pitched, innings pitched, and who the batter is. Following set protocols established from all of the statistics gathered, the pitcher is then supposedly able to pitch better and not get injured. But yet, it appears that more pitchers are getting injured now than ever before. If they are not getting injured more often it is safe to say that there has been no appreciable change.
In regard to hitting, there has not been any overall increase in batting percentages and in fact, there has probably been a decrease. The number of 300 hitters is less and we have not seen 400 hitters since the advent of moneyball statistics. The manipulation of pitcher and batter has not produced more winning games.
What we now need are more statisticians doing statistics on the people doing the statistics. Only then will there be proof if it works. What is missing in all of the numbers being gathered is that teams are not looking at how they can improve player skills and resulting player performance. After all, it is player skill that determines success on the field, not whether the odds are in his favor for a hit or a strikeout or whatever. When will we examine the concept of improving player performance by improving player skill? This is the key to winning! Probabilities are only good when hoping for a hit or a strike or a homerun etc. Probabilities do not ensure success. Only player skill does this.
Many coaches – and probably owners – still believe that it is impossible to improve players’ skill and resulting field play. But sports science has proven time and time again that it is very possible to improve player skills on all levels. Perhaps it is too obvious. If improving skill was impossible there would be no need for coaches. Anyone could then make up a lineup and play the players based on his statistics.
When baseball gets caught up to the sport sciences that are presently available, improvement in player skill, or simply maintaining player skill, would then become the new revolution and far surpass moneyball. The demand for coaches knowledgeable in technique analysis and specialized training that duplicates exactly what happens in the pitching, hitting, throwing or running would increase exponentially. Right now we few such experts but there will be many crash courses to develop them. Then we will see true changes and improvement in player performance.
For more information on improvement of skills and player performance see Build a Better Athlete.